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The September 2021 United States Equity Risk Premium Report provides conditional and non-conditional equity risk premium (ERP) estimates for the United States based on data from publicly traded companies. Our ERP calculations are based on Implied, Historical and Credit Spread approaches and we comment on observed ERP surveys. ERP’s are provided for 10, 20, and 30 year risk free rates. The results of statistical tests are provided for certain measures to assist you in evaluating our conclusions.
Implied ERP results are based on multiple valuation methods. We logic check the results based on implied multiples. Historical calculations are provided in order to demonstrate the robustness of our results.
Historical ERP results are based on our proprietary USA 200 index that was specially designed for ERP estimation purposes. We apply multiple measurement periods and compare these results to historical method ERP’s that would have resulted from major stock market indices.
Credit Spread ERP results are based on 2 methods. The first method extrapolates ERP from historical corporate bond yield spread ranges and the second method extrapolates ERP from a regression between default probabilities and yield spreads.